For a Republican candidate to win in 2008, he must convince voters that he represents change while not repudiating President Bush, who is still popular with the Republican Party’s core constituency. That may be difficult to do.
Of course, if the voting public could be convinced that a Democratic president would mean drastically higher taxes and a weak national defense, the 2008 election could switch from a change to a stable election. It is not clear if any Republican candidate has the credibility to pull that off.
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